Trade and uncertainty

The five chapters of this dissertation deal with the topic of trade under different kinds of uncertainty. In the first chapter, the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on exports of European countries is investigated with a special focus on short-term effects, sectoral differences and the impact of the Euro. The second chapter focuses on the endogeneity problem of the currency decision and provides new evidence about fixed exchange rate effects without endogeneity bias. In chapter three and four survey based micro-data is used to examine currency effects at the firm level in the former and the impact of perceived uncertainty including exchange rate uncertainty on the decision of the export channel in the latter. The fifth chapter turns to the impact of political factors on the transfer of major conventional arms. Results indicate that uncertainty and especially uncertainty about future exchange rates has a negative impact on trade.