Trade effects of climate change: An application to MENA countries

This paper tests the relationship between climate and trade of agricultural products in MENA countries, using bilateral data disaggregated at product level. The model includes gravity control variables and addresses the selection bias with disaggregated production variables in a Heckman two-step procedure. Results show that a rise in temperature and a decrease in precipitation significantly reduce exports and increase imports in MENA countries. This raises the question of food security in these countries.