Trade liberalization and poverty dynamics in Vietnam 2002-2006

This paper shows the evolution of poverty in Vietnam during the deepening of trade liberalization and examines the impact of trade-related variables at the household level. The study is based on a panel dataset of households followed in 2002, 2004 and 2006. Trade-related variables at the household level are defined as the household specialization in terms of production and employment with respect to the type of jobs (wage earners or self-employed) and sectors (import-competing or exported manufactured goods, services, and in agriculture, rice, exported, subsistence and import-competing crops). For the poor, besides the expected positive impact of working in an export-related sector (in industry and in agriculture), diversification in self-employed non-farm activities appears to have been efficient at alleviating poverty. Moreover, the import-competing sectors (in industry and in agriculture) play also a positive role in poverty alleviation. The latter channel could be hindered in the near future, as Vietnam is now in the process of decreasing its import protection.