Treatment-Effect Identification Without Parallel paths. An Illustration in the Case of Objective 1 - Hainaut/Belgium, 1994-2006

Imagine an impoverished region that becomes eligible for a generous transfer programme (the treatment). Imagine difference-in-differences analysis (DD) — a before-and-after comparison of the income-level handicap — shows that the handicap has risen. Most observers would conclude to the policy's inefficiency. The point made in this paper is that second thoughts are needed, because DD rests heavily on the validity of a key assumption: parallel paths in the absence of treatment. What is more, when several pre-treatment periods are available in the data, it can easily be assessed and, if necessary, abandoned in favour of more relevant ones