Trends in age- and parity-specific fertility in Australia

Examination of fertility rates in Australia indicates a fall over time in both period and cohort fertility. Period total fertility has been below replacement level for twenty-five years, while cohorts completing their fertility in the first decade of the 21st century are likely to have around replacement-level fertility. Policy-makers and others in Australia are concerned about the potential for further fertility decline, given the impact this would have on population age structure and growth rates. This paper tests the hypothesis that the recent fall in fertility is due solely to changes in age-specific first-birth rates, resulting from delayed parenthood and increased levels of childlessness. Age- and parity-specific fertility rates for the period 1991–98 are constructed. These show that recent fertility declines are driven by changes in first- and second-birth rates, rather than first-birth rates only, while rates for higher order births remain relatively constant. One implication of this is the increasing prevalence of childlessness and one-child families in Australia. The author uses the 1991–98 age- and parity-specific fertility rates as the basis of four different projections of fertility. The likelihood of each of these projections given past trends in fertility is considered.