Trimmed opinion pools and the crowd's calibration problem
Year of publication: |
2014
|
---|---|
Authors: | Jose, Victor Richmond R. ; Grushka-Cockayne, Yael ; Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. |
Published in: |
Management science : journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. - Catonsville, MD : INFORMS, ISSN 0025-1909, ZDB-ID 206345-1. - Vol. 60.2014, 2, p. 463-475
|
Subject: | trimming | probability forecasts | expert combination | linear opinion pool | underconfidence | overconfidence | scoring rules | wisdom of crowds | Theorie | Theory | Prognoseverfahren | Forecasting model | Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung | Probability theory | Experten | Experts |
-
Quantile evaluation, sensitivity to bracketing, and sharing business payoffs
Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, (2017)
-
Median aggregation of distribution functions
Hora, Stephen C., (2013)
-
Probabilistic coherence weighting for optimizing expert forecasts
Karvetski, Christopher W., (2013)
- More ...
-
Averaging probability forecasts : back to the future
Winkler, Robert L., (2018)
-
Quantile evaluation, sensitivity to bracketing, and sharing business payoffs
Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, (2017)
-
Ensembles of overfit and overconfident forecasts
Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, (2017)
- More ...