Types of Communications Technology and Civil Conflict

This paper introduces a unifying theoretical framework to understand the relationship between different types of communications technology (CT) and the incidence of civil conflict. In our model, one-way CT allows the government to broadcast messages they use to (mis)inform dissidents about the size of the available rents. This decreases the dissident group s marginal returns from fighting against the government. Two-way CT facilitates dialogue among dissident group members, helping them to overcome coordination issues and improve their chances of winning a fight against the government. The model predicts one-way CT decreases and two-way CT increases conflict incidence. Empirical evidence from country-level panel databases (studying up to 189 countries) and individual-level survey responses (from up to 74 countries) is consistent with these predictions. Radio and television penetration and usage are associated with diminished levels of civil conflict and anti-government attitudes. On the contrary, cell phone and internet penetration and usage correlate with greater likelihoods of conflict and higher anti-government sentiment