U.S. Mortgage crisis and its influence on Lithuanian market

The main goal of Master thesis is to analyze U.S. mortgage crisis and test its influence on the particular Lithuanian market player, pointing the drop and stabilization of its financial indicators. To reach this goal mortgage crisis reasons, mechanism and consequences are being analyzed and described. In practical part the relationship between creadit deals and main macroeconomic indicators is established. Is task is performed by using correlation and regression analysis. The calculation revealed the weakness in the credit system as relationship between creadit deals and average salary turned out to be the weakest one. In order to test the situation on a market player the only Lithuanian listed company from real estate and constructions sector is analyzed. Company‘s name is „Panevėžio Statybos Trestas“ and during one-year period the price of its stock has dropped by 90%. Therefore, the task is to forecast the behavior of stock price in the coming years and find out when it will be more stable. To forecast the stock price for coming years Dividend Discount model is used. Discount rate is calculated using Capital Asset Pricing Model. The analysis shows that after sharp slow down moderate growth may be expected after 2010. However, the pace of growth will be slow enough, especially in comparison with recent years aggressive increase.