Uma estimativa dos custos fiscais da política industrial recente (2004-2016)

This article estimates fiscal costs derived from the federal government industrial policy between 2004 and 2016. We focus on the measurement of "tax expenditures", something inedited in Brazilian economic literature on the subject. We also analysis tax exemptions that, for legal reasons, are not considered as tax expenditures, but are relevant for our study. The main findings can be summarized as follows: i) the evidence suggests that industrial policy instituted since 2003 promoted the continued rise in tax expenditures; ii) despite the wide range of instruments exploited, the bulk of expenditures intended traditional industrial policies at the expense of more innovative industries; and iii) there is a surprising continuity of new measures - that amplify the tax expenditures - focusing on the Free Economic Zone of Manaus and the automotive sector.