Un modèle d'estimation de la valeur des lots de bois à partir de résultats d'enchères avec invendus

Timber stumpage appraisal is an important issue for Public Forest Services so as to set a relevant reserve price and to obtain a fair market value. The hedonic price function approach is a useful method to infer the appraisal timber value given that many characteristics may influence the stumpage price. We adopt the transaction-evidence timber appraisal method using a data set including timber auctions. An econometric problem arises from the fact that a large number of lots remain unsold at the end of the sales. In addition, the seller reserve price is not announced in French timber auctions. We study the variables that determine the probability that a lot will be sold or not and the implicit prices of the characteristics of the lots. We correct the bias due to the existence of unsold lots using the sample selection model of Heckman. Classification JEL : D44, C24, L73, Q23