Due to stagflation, there was a significant deterioration in the global forecast for labor markets for 2022 (according to the International Labor Organization, employment in 2023 should grow by 1.0% compared to a 2.3% growth rate in 2022). The main reasons for stagflation include the uneven recovery from the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. Supply chain constraints persist, resulting in negative shifts in supply curves in commodity and food markets and a corresponding increase in prices. As nominal wages remain at the same level, real labor incomes have declined. In the face of constant high uncertainty, there has been a drop in consumer confidence and a reduction in investment, especially in small and medium-sized businesses. Accordingly, in the AD-AS macroeconomic model, in addition to a left-up shift along the aggregate demand curve, there was also a shift of the aggregate demand curve to the left (negative AD shock) due to a fall in such AD components as consumer spending (C) and private investment (I). Tight monetary policy, which central banks are forced to implement to fight inflation, could exacerbate the reduction in investment spending. As a result, many countries have yet to return to employment levels and hours of work at the end of 2019 (before the COVID-19 crisis).While Europe and Central Asia have been the hardest hit economically by the conflict in Ukraine, although employment is projected to fall in these regions in 2023, unemployment will rise modestly, due to limited growth in the working-age population. In general, the trend of population aging in developed countries and in many emerging markets is shifting supply curves in labor markets to the left, which may offset the effects of lower labor demand on the size of equilibrium wage rates, but will negatively affect the number of jobs. In connection with the reduction in the supply of labor, the real options effect, which leads to the fact that firms are reluctant to hire new workers in conditions of uncertainty, is superimposed by the reluctance of firms to part with valuable employees.Unemployment in Russia in February 2023 decreased to 3.5% from 3.6% recorded in January, having updated its historical low for the second time since the beginning of the year (over the period of observation of the indicator since 1991). This paradoxical result became possible, firstly, due to the fact that the size of the labor force decreased due to mobilization, and, secondly, due to the fact that the employed included those who entered the military service under the contract, previously working in informal sector
