Uncertainty, Market Structure and Strategic Trade Policy

We introduce demand uncertainty into the context of strategic trade policy in an export rivalry market model, and we examine endogenous timing in the framework of Cournot-Stackelberg duopoly when firms decide in the first stage whether to set output level before or after resolution of uncertainty. In the absence of government intervention, both Cournot outcome and Stackelberg outcome could emerge in the equilibrium depending on market volatility and cost difference between firms. Under bilateral export subsidies, both firms tend to prefer making output decisions after the resolution of uncertainty which yields only the Cournot market structure. This result holds for any degrees of uncertainty, regardless whether the firm has cost advantage over its rival or not