Une nouvelle famille de courbes de croissance : application à la transition démographique
Artzrouni Marc. ? A new family of growth curves : application to the demographic transition. The demographic transition is characterized by birth and death rates that decrease from one asymptotic value to the other. These rates can be approximated by "antilogistic" » functions, i.e. "a constant minus a logistic". The family of growth curves P(t) implied by such hypotheses contains all ordinary exponential curves, as well as growth curves that are asymptotically exponential (decreasing or increasing) after a period of rapid growth. Generalized and ordinary logistics, that converge to an upper limit, are special cases of these functions. Several theoretical examples are discussed. Antilogistic functions are useful in capturing the growth of northern European countries during the demographic transition. As an example, the crude birth and death rates of Sweden were fitted for the period 1750-1980 by antilogistic functions. The resulting fit for the crude rates was good and the fit between the theoretical population P(t) and the total population that would have been observed in the absence of migrations was virtually perfect. This is due to the fact that the total population P(t) is a cumulated function of past birth and death rates.
Year of publication: |
1986
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Authors: | Artzrouni, Marc |
Published in: |
Population (french edition). - Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED). - Vol. 41.1986, 3, p. 497-509
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Publisher: |
Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED) |
Saved in:
freely available
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