Updated Arkansas Global Rice Model

The Arkansas Global Rice Model is based on a multi-country statistical simulation andeconometric framework. The model consists of six sub regions. These regions are the U.S., South Asia,North Asia and the Middle East, the Americas, Africa and Europe. Each region comprises of severalcountries and each country model has a supply sector, a demand sector, a trade, stocks and price linkageequations. All equations used in this model were estimated using econometric procedures or identities.Estimates are based upon a set of explanatory variables including exogenous macroeconomic factors suchas income, population, inflation rate, technology development, and especially, government determinedpolicy variables which reflect the various mechanisms by which countries intervene in their rice sectoreconomy.More specifically, the Arkansas Global Rice Model is a representation of the world rice economy.It is specified as a series of six regional models, each having a similar structure within which endogenousrelationships explain the economic factors determining rice demand, supply, trade and prices. Individualcountry models are then linked through net trade that highlights the interdependence of countries in theworld rice economy.