Using scalar models for precautionary assessments of threatened species
Scalar population models, commonly referred to as count-based models, are based on time-seriesdata of population sizes and may be useful for screening-level ecological risk assessments when data formore complex models are not available. Appropriate use of such models for management purposes, however,requires understanding inherent biases that may exist in these models. Through a series of simulations, whichcompared predictions of risk of decline of scalar and matrix-based models, we examined whether discrepanciesmay arise from different dynamics displayed due to age structure and generation time. We also examinedscalar and matrix-based population models of 18 real populations for potential patterns of bias in populationviability estimates. In the simulation study, precautionary bias (i.e., overestimating risks of decline) of scalarmodels increased as a function of generation time. Models of real populations showed poor fit between scalarand matrix-based models, with scalar models predicting significantly higher risks of decline on average. Thestrength of this bias was not correlated with generation time, suggesting that additional sources of bias may bemasking this relationship. Scalar models can be useful for screening-level assessments, which should in generalbe precautionary, but the potential shortfalls of these models should be considered before using them as a basisfor management decisions.
Year of publication: |
2006-10
|
---|---|
Authors: | Bridges, Todd S ; Akcakaya, H. Resit ; Dunham, Amy E |
Publisher: |
Blackwell Publishing |
Subject: | population viability analysis | threatened species | matrix models | extinction risk | count-based PVA | age structure |
Saved in:
freely available
Saved in favorites
Similar items by subject
-
Tisdell, Clement A., (2004)
-
Krishna, Vijesh V., (2019)
-
МАТРИЧНЫЕ ИНФОРМАТИВНЫЕ ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ РАЗВИТИЯ НАУЧНО-ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНОЙ ПОДСИСТЕМЫ
НИКОЛАЕВНА, ТОМШИНСКАЯ ИРИНА, (2014)
- More ...