Using the Payment System Data to Forecast the Italian GDP

Payment systems track economic transactions and therefore could be considered important indicators of economic activity. This paper describes the available monthly data on the retail settlement system for Italy and selects some of them for short-term forecasting. Using a mixed frequency factor model to predict Italian GDP, we find that payment system flows stand out when compared to other standard business cycle indicators

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Year of publication:	2017
Authors:	Aprigliano, Valentina
Other Persons:	Ardizzi, Guerino (contributor) ; Monteforte, Libero (contributor)
Publisher:	[2017]: [S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Wirtschaftsindikator \| Economic indicator \| Zahlungsverkehr \| Payment system \| Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Italien \| Italy

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (31 p)
Series:	Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione (Working Paper) ; No. 1098
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments February 23, 2017 erstellt
Other identifiers:	10.2139/ssrn.2946969 [DOI]
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E17 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E27 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959319