Valoración estadística - financiera para medio plazo del sector bancario en países con economías emergentes. El caso de Colombia

This article intends to expose a process for the valuation of shares of the companies of the banking sector through business financial multiples, based on various statistical techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian models of continuous valuation of the relative indicators over time, with in order to make scenario projections as successful as possible in the medium term. Regarding the methodology, the research approach was quantitative; the type of descriptive-correlational study, and the research design was non-experimental. Because in order to carry out the assessment of the performance and evolution of the financial multiples over time, similar companies must be considered, it was decided to previously conduct a cluster analysis, to verify possible groupings between the banking entities according to the variables.