Valuación financiera de proyectos de inversión en nuevas tecnologías con opciones reales

The financial valuation of investment projects of new technologies requires of a certain degree of flexibility in implementing future investment strategies. Unfortunately, the criterion of net present value is quite rigid in dealing with investment plans because they can not be changed, that is, investment is irreversible. The value of a project on a new technology should not only discount expected flows, but also incorporate flexibility in the future investment strategies such as: expansion, contraction, postponement, abandonment, etc. This paper develops and applies the methodology of real options for the valuation of projects to adopt new technologies. The term structure for discounting the expected flows is estimated by using the Vasicek (1977) and CIR models (1985). The value of the option of adoption is calculated by means of the Black-Scholes formula (1973).