This document summarises work completed for Stages 1 to 4 of the VANTAGE Traffic Flow Model (Workpackage 4.2.2). It comprises Deliverables D4.2.2.8 (updated methodological description, critical commentary on the forecasts and results for Stage 4 of the Traffic Flow Model) and D4.2.2.9 (the full model outputs, as CSV files, plus the electronic model itself). We have previously reported on Stages 1 and 2. Stage 3 refinements are reported alongside those made in Stage 4 in this Deliverable. In Stage 1, we developed the route and passenger forecasts for 2015, for the UK regional airports. We produced passenger forecasts for the whole of the year 2015 (primarily based on 1995 and 2005 CAA-sourced data), and route and frequency forecasts which related to a peak week in July 2015 (primarily based on 1995 and 2005 OAG-sourced data), split into international, plus ‘domestic and Eire’ forecasts. In Stage 2, we specified the actual routes forecast for all UK regional airports, for the peak week in July 2015. An example peak week schedule for Aberdeen was furnished. The schedules and forecasts have been built from a supporting database of over 10 500 flights. Several independent models were built, and integrated, to produce the initial output tables. Extensive data cleaning was necessary for this task. In Stages 3 and 4, a number of enhancements have been incorporated into the algorithms for the model, including the integration of some basic, alternative macro-level assumptions (such as higher/lower growth rates). New methods for the balancing of domestic routes and incorporation of different runway constraints are discussed. The challenges of producing parallel charter and cargo estimates are also explored. Seven pre-defined forecast scenarios that simulate varying degrees of economic growth and fuel price have been developed and form the basis of the output generated by the model. The baseline (scenario 1) forecast is discussed in detail in this Deliverable, and forms the basis of the outputs herein. In addition, output tables (traffic forecasts and timetables) for all seven scenarios accompany this document.
Total CO2, aggregated across all the scheduled passenger flight movements from the 36 regional forecasts have been calculated for each of the seven scenarios. A new model was also built for this computation. CO2 estimates extend beyond the UK UIR/FIR boundary, thus complementing the higher-fidelity TMA estimates computed within the Synthetic Environment.
