Variances of Population Projections: Comparison of Two Approaches.
There has been a recent upsurge of interest in probabilistic population projections. Two methods have been suggested in the literature for forecasting the inputs into those projections: (1) a random lines (RL) approach, and (2) a simple autoregressive approach (AR(1)). The purpose of this paper is to study analytically the differences produced by the two methods. We do this in the context of a model of variability in population growth rates. Two cases are considered: One where there is no population age structure and one where there is one. In both, we find that the variance using the AR(1) approach is initially smaller than that of the RL approach, but that over time the variance using the RL approach grows more rapidly leading to an instant of time when the variances are equal.
Year of publication: |
1999-11
|
---|---|
Authors: | Bauer, D. ; Feichtinger, G. ; Lutz, W. ; Sanderson, W.C. |
Institutions: | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) |
Saved in:
freely available
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
Population, Development, and Environment on the Yucatan Peninsula: From Ancient Maya to 2030.
Lutz, W., (2000)
-
Lutz, W., (2000)
-
Population, Natural Resources and Food Security Lessons from Comparing Full and Reduced Form Models.
Lutz, W., (2000)
- More ...