Wages in the Business Cycle : An Empirical and Methodological Analysis

Cover -- Contents -- 1. Introduction -- 1. The 'stylized fact' of cyclical wages -- 1.1. The belief in counter-cyclical real wages -- 2. Theory, facts and falsification -- 2.1. Falsification and the methodological responses -- 2.2. Falsification and the individual responses -- 3. Inference -- 4. Structure of the book -- 2. The Theoretical Background -- 1. Neoclassical assumptions -- 2. Alternative assumptions -- 2.1. Technology shocks -- 2.2. Quantity rationing -- 2.3. Kalecki -- 3. Generalized model -- 4. Pro-cyclical wage movements -- 4.1. Logical possibility -- 4.2. Causal mechanism -- 5. Conclusion -- 3. A Survey of the Literature -- 1. The Literature -- 2. From Keynes (1936) to Keynes (1939) -- 2.1. Accuracy and uniformity -- 2.2. Real and product wages -- 2.3. Marginal user cost -- 2.4. Shape of cost curves -- 2.5. Mark-up -- 3. Methods -- 3.1. Wage equations and labour demand schedules -- 3.2. The existence of cycles -- 3.3. Cyclical variable -- 3.4. Wage series and the role of materials -- 3.5. Lags -- 3.6. Detrending -- 3.7. Data coverage -- 4. Results -- 5. Conclusion -- 4. International Results -- 1. Product wages -- 2. Lags and leads -- 3. Materials costs -- 4. Wages and materials costs -- 5. Wages, materials costs and output -- 6. Total direct costs -- 7. Comparison with other studies -- 8. Parameter stability -- 9. Conclusion -- 5. Employment -- 1. Methods -- 1.1. The specification of the correlation to be tested -- 1.2. The estimation of the correlations -- 2. Results -- 2.1. Wages and employment -- 2.2. Materials costs and total direct costs -- 2.3. Employment conditional on output -- 2.4. Number employed -- 3. Discussion -- 4. Conclusion -- 6. Phases of the Cycle -- 1. Methods -- 1.1. Phase Average Trend -- 1.2. Dependent and independent variables -- 2. Results -- 2.1. Cycle phases -- 2.2. 1952 III to 1967 III -- 3. Conclusion.