War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?
The Queen's question "Why did no one see it coming" provoked professional economists as well. A fierce discussion arose how to modify and improve theory and models. A survey of the literature reveals that almost a hundred analyses warned against the instability of several mechanism, be it bubbles, oversupply of funds, financial innovations, behaviour of financial institutions or regulation. Most observers predicted a recession, nobody a worldwide crisis. The crisis arose as all these mechanisms worked together and produced a surprise. Surprises appear to be the central elements of deep financial crises. Therefore the chances are odd for forecasting. Copyright 2010 die Autoren. Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik 2010 Verein für Socialpolitik.
Year of publication: |
2010
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Authors: | Tichy, Gunther |
Published in: |
Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik. - Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS. - Vol. 11.2010, 4, p. 356-382
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Publisher: |
Verein für Socialpolitik - VfS |
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