WAS FERTILIZER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ALONE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHORTFALL OF BORO RICE PRODUCTION IN BANGLADESH IN 1995?

It is generally alleged that defective fertilizer distribution system which created artificial crisis of Urea was mainly responsible for shortfall of Boro rice production in 1995. Based on macro level as well as micro level data, the present study mainly aimed at investigating whether there were other important factors which aggravated the production environment in that year. The analysis showed that there was an absolute shortage of Urea supply during the peak period (January-March) of fertilizer demand in 1995 Boro season. Further, additional demand as a result of increased area under Boro paddy and high price of Aman rice at the end of 1994 also contributed to higher Urea rice in 1995 Boro season. Increased fertilizer prices also caused significant reduction in its use which affected Boro production. In addition to fertilizer (Urea) crisis, severe drought in the Boro season of 1995 significantly increased cost of irrigation and additional cost of irrigation was found to be more than that of fertilizer cost. Therefore, fertilizer crisis along with drought condition affected yield as well as farmers profitability in 1995 Boro season. Particularly, production of small farmers was mostly affected since compared to rich and medium farmers they spent less on these high ost inputs. The findings indicated that even under privatized distribution system, government intervention may be needed to ensure fertilizer at the right time, in the right quantity and at the right price. Further, more research is needed to assess impact of drought on production even with irrigation facilities.