Were Canadian Exports to the U.S. Curtailed by the Post-9/11 Thickening of the U.S. Border?

The paper examines the data for Canadian exports to the United States that have been cited as prima facie evidence of a "thickening of the border." It estimates that Canadian exports of goods, excluding energy and forestry products, to the United States have been 12.5 per cent lower than would have been expected based on estimated relationships and exports of services 8 per cent lower. These estimates suggest that the boost to Canadian exports resulting from the FTA/NAFTA has been substantially eroded.