What floats your boat? Preference revelation from lotteries over complex goods

A lottery that provides participants the opportunity to choose among a set of simple gambles over multi-attribute goods results in an endogenous distribution of win rates over gambles that reflects tradeoffs between the relative desirability of the available goods and the probability of winning. These win rates provide sufficient information to estimate hedonic prices, marginal utility, and marginal rates of substitution among attributes. We develop a model for mapping preferences from this information set and apply it to Idaho’s Four Rivers Whitewater Recreation Lottery. This lottery structure shows promise as a foundation for economic experiments for preference revelation.