What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States

This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices in the United States and finds that despite recent declines, single-family homes remained 8 to 20 percent overvalued as of the first quarter of 2008

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Year of publication:	2008
Authors:	Klyuev, Vladimir
Publisher:	Washington : International Monetary Fund
Subject:	USA \| United States \| Immobilienpreis \| Real estate price

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Extent:	Online-Ressource (31 p)
Series:	IMF Working Papers
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record Contents; I. Introduction; II. Long-Term Trends; III. Short-Run Dynamics; IV. Is The United States Experiencing a Nationwide House Price Bust?; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. Price Indices for Existing Single-Family Homes, 2000Q1=100; 2. Real Home Price and Rent, 2000=100; 3. Actual and Predicted Real Home Prices by Region. Supply-Demand System; 4. Real OFHEO Purchase-Only House Price (Index; 2000=100); 5. Predicted Prices with Different Estimation End Points; 6. Actual and Predicted Real Home Prices by Region. Single Equation 7. Real Home Prices - Actual and Estimated in a Cointegrating Relationship Between Home Prices, Rents, and Interest Rates. Estimation with Different End Points8. Real Home Prices - Actual and Estimated in a Cointegrating Relationship Between Home Price-to-Rent Ratio and Interest Rates. Estimation with Different End Points; 9. Real Home Price Predicted by a Cointegration Model; 10. Prediced Log Real Home (Cointegration Method) and Contributions; 11. Sales and Inventory for Sale of Existing Single Family Homes; 12. Simulation of Real Home Price Level 13. Simulation of Real Home Price Quarterly Growth14. Year-on-Year Growth Rates of Home Prices; 15. Quarter-on-Quarter Growth Rates of Home Prices; 16. Standard Deviation of Home Price Growth Rates Across Divisions; 17. Diffusion Index for Year-on-Year Home Price Growth Across Census Divsions; 18. Diffusion Index for Quarter-on-Quarter Home Price Growth Across Census Divsions ; Tables; 1. Estimated Supply and Demand System for Real Home Prices; 2. Estimated Equations for Real Home Prices as a Function of Fundamentals; 3. Home Price as a Function of Fundamentals with Land-Constraint Dummy 4. Cointegrating Relationship Between Real House Prices, Rents, and Interest Rates5. Home Price Appreciation and Price Gap; 6. Short-Run Determinants of Real Home Price Appreciation; 7. Evolution of Inventory-to-Sales Ratio
ISBN:	978-1-4518-7045-9 ; 978-1-4519-1498-6 ; 978-1-4518-7045-9
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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