What If? : Counterfactual Analysis in International Relations
What would the world have been if nuclear weapons have never been developed? Asked by Kenneth Waltz, this question leads us to think about the usage of counterfactuals in IR. Though we use a lot of counterfactuals in daily conversation, the method of counterfactual analysis did not get much attention in the academia of political science until 1980s. Can counterfactual analysis be a scientific method in international studies? This paper argues for a more central role of counterfactual analysis in International Relations. To back up this argument, it argues that the International Relations, as a discipline often of relatively small number of case for research, analyzes events after knowing outcomes, most of which are not replicable; these characteristics require counterfactual analysis to play a more salient role in helping us understand international relations scientifically. By examining the development of counterfactual analysis, this paper shows how counterfactual analysis can be utilized to supplement methodologies like rational choice and historical institutionalism for better understanding of international events. The paper concludes with criteria for judging good usage of counterfactual analysis
Year of publication: |
2010
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Authors: | Lu, Tao |
Publisher: |
[2010]: [S.l.] : SSRN |
Description of contents: | Abstract [papers.ssrn.com] |
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