What Influences Fertility Plans of China's Migrant Populations? Mechanism Analysis Based on House Prices Perspective

The demographic imbalance brought about by China's low fertility rate in recent years is a matter of concern. This paper uses data from the 2018 China Migrant Dynamic Survey to estimate the impact of house prices on the fertility plans of the migrant populations. After using instrumental variables and propensity score matching to mitigate potential endogeneity problems, the results show that the higher house prices in the inflow cities, the less likelihood female migrant populations have fertility plans; if the housing pressure of the migrant populations is low, their fertility plans are less affected by house prices; the sensitivity of the migrant populations' fertility plans to house prices is also influenced by the moderating effect of infrastructure development; heterogeneity analysis shows that the fertility plans of female migrant populations with larger family size, higher education level and younger age are more sensitive to house prices. This paper fills the gap in the impact of house prices on the fertility of migrant populations group and analyzed the mechanism of the impact of house prices on the fertility plans of the migrant populations