The aim of this paper is to consider the possible implications of an EPA between the EU and the Caribbean. The focus is on the Caribbean economies, and on the question of what form of EPA might be pro-development and pro-poor for the region. The discussion outlines the specificities of the Caribbean region, and some of the economies therein as well as detailing the key analytical issues which need to be considered. The empirical analysis focuses on examining patterns of trade by product and geographical source at a highly detailed level of disaggregation. The analysis suggests that future EPA arrangements are more likely to lead to significant trade diversion as opposed to trade creation or trade reorientation. MFN liberalisation would serve to minimise trade diversion, but in turn is likely to lead to greater adjustment costs. If the EPAs are to be pro-development and pro-poor than maintaining/increasing levels of market access to the EU, and ensuring appropriate levels of assistance and aid will be critical. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
