Which Technological Characteristics Matter Most in Evolutionary Pathways of New Technology? Hedonic Pricing Method for Detecting and Predicting Technological Trajectories in Smartphone

A fundamental problem in the scientific field of technical change and technological forecasting is to detect the driving technical characteristics of new technology in order to predict evolutionary pathways. The vast literature in economics of innovation has analyzed many aspects of technical change and emerging technology. However, methods to detect the technical characteristics driving new technologies are rather elusive. This study suggests a hedonic price method in which product prices are regressed with respect to technical characteristics of the product under study to detect and assess fruitful technological trajectories supporting the evolution of technology. Application of this method is based on empirical data of smartphone technology (N=738 models over 2008-2018). Results reveal that higher resolution of display and images of digital cameras and larger Gb of RAM are the driving characteristics of technological evolution in smartphone technology. In fact, quality of images of cameras, optical zoom, higher display resolutions, larger RAM are more and more vital technical features of new smartphone technology in competitive markets to satisfy users. Implications for management of technology are discussed for predicting technological trajectories in smartphone technology and for guiding funding for R&D to support technical characteristics that are likeliest to evolve rapidly in society