Who are likely to be the future poor in Indonesia? Evidence on primary school non-completion from six rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey, 1991-2012

The non-completion of primary school and educational attainment in general in Indonesia has been associated with an increased likelihood of being or remaining poor. In light of this, this paper considers the evolution of primary school non-completion using six rounds of the Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey covering the period 1991–2012. The paper presents new, consistent estimates of the evolution of the incidence of and total composition of, primary education non-completion in Indonesia over two decades by the characteristics of household heads. The paper argues that although such deprivations remain concentrated among households in rural areas and in households with heads not in work or employed in agriculture, counter-intuitively, as deprivations decline,there are growing and sizable proportions in urban and non-agriculture headed households meaning a policy focus largely on the ‘traditional’ characteristics of deprived households might risk missing substantial proportions of the remaining and likely future poor in Indonesia.