Why Do Federal Funds Trade at the FOMC's Target Rate?

The role of inflation expectations on the part of economic agents is being increasingly recognized and incorporated into frameworks for the setting of monetary policy (for example, Piger and Rasche 2008, Hetzel 2008). In this article, I describe how expectations are also critical in the implementation of monetary policy. According to the textbook view, the Federal Reserve controls the federal funds rate by varying the supply of reserves available to the banking system. I will argue, however, that fluctuations in the supply of reserves are not the full explanation, thus providing additional support for Taylor (2001), who found that federal funds trade at or around the Federal Open Market Committee's target rate in part because market participants expect that if they don't, the Fed will step in and react