Wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen von Lohnerhöhungen in der Detailhandelsbranche

For some time now, Swiss trade unions have been demanding a substantial increase of the wages in the lowest income segments, especially in the retail and catering service industries. At present, increases for the sales personell in the retail industry stand in the forefront of trade union interest. Depending on the share of the wage sum affected, such pay increases can have a significant impact on prices, employment and the composition of the retail industry. Moreover, these effects are not limited to the retail industry itself, but would have repercussions on the rest of the economy (e.g. on consumer prices in general). The project consisted in quantifying these effects with the help of a small econometric model. Besides comparing the states before and after the wage shock, the adjustment dynamics between the two states are depicted. The main results are, that employment in the retail industry bears the brunt of the adjustment, whereas prices are little affected. A qualitative assessment of the effects on the structure of the industry rounds off the paper. The study was commissioned by the trade union Unia.