Zum künftigen Stellenwert der ersten Säule im Gesamtsystem der Alterssicherung

We investigate the development of public pensions in Germany and how its significance will change when the multi-pillar systems matures due to population aging. The message of our analysis is complex. Even after the pension reforms which took place between 2001 and 2007 public pensions will still be the most important pillar in Germany’s old-age provision. Until 2040 public pensions will provide more than 70% of retirement income. In the very long term (after 2050) public pensions will contribute 60% to the retirement income package and private old-age provision about 40% - if all members of the public pension system will save into private plans during their whole work-life. However, the future importance of the first pillar depends on the social status of the individuals and on political interference as well as adaptive behaviour which are all hard to foresee – especially the future labor force participation and the willingness to save privately for old-age.