Haimerl, Paul; Hartl, Tobias - In: Econometrics : open access journal 11 (2023) 2, pp. 1-15
The COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by a recurring sequence of peaks and troughs. This article proposes a regime-switching unobserved components (UC) approach to model the trend of COVID-19 infections as a function of this ebb and flow pattern. Estimated regime probabilities indicate the...