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Exchange rates and sovereign risk : a nonlinear approach based on local Gaussian correlations
Heinlein, Reinhold; Legrenzi, Gabriella; Mahadeo, Scott … - 2024
We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505308
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Banking and debt crisis in Europe : the dangerous liaisons?
Candelon, Bertrand; Palm, Franz C. - 2010
The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated … the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before … self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future. -- king crisis ; sovereign debt crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951604
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Boom-bust cycles in middle income countries : facts and explanation
Tornell, Aaron; Westermann, Frank - 2002
In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have witnessed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410453
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Reserve accumulation, macroeconomic stabilization, and sovereign risk
Bianchi, Javier; Sosa Padilla, César - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012244079
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The euro crisis and economic growth : a novel counterfactual approach
Terzi, Alessio - 2019 - This Draft: 25 June 2019
Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033212
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Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies
Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020
Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162762
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Seigniorage and sovereign default : the response of emerging markets to COVID-19
Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; … - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306883
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News, sovereign debt maturity, and default risk
Dvorkin, Maximiliano A.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Sapriza, Horacio - 2018
estimation, a news shock has a larger contemporaneous impact on sovereign credit spreads than a comparable shock to labor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011950496
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Sudden stops, sovereign risk, and fiscal rules
Gómez González, José Eduardo; Valencia, Oscar M.; … - 2021
This paper studies the effect of implementing fiscal rules on sovereign default risk and on the probability of large capital ow reversals for a large sample of countries including both developed and emerging market economies. Results indicate that fiscal rules are beneficial for macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586437
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Emerging markets bond index performance and sovereign default : the case of Ecuador
Zanoni López, Wladimir; Díaz, Emily; Paredes, Jorge; … - 2024
This paper delves into the dynamic impact of Ecuador's 2008 sovereign debt default on the subsequent performance of the country's bonds, specifically as measured by the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI). Through a blend of qualitative and quantitative analyses, the paper develops a framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014529939