We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

Continuous longevity improvements and population ageing have led countries to modify national public pension schemes by increasing the standard and early retirement ages in a discretionary, scheduled, or automatic way, and by making it harder for people to retire prematurely. To this end,...

Social Security faces a major financing shortfall. One policy option for addressing this shortfall would be to raise the earliest age at which individuals can claim their retirement benefits. A welfare analysis of such a policy change depends critically on how it affects living standards. This...

We study associations among women's current marital status, past marital history, and later-life labor force participation. We first document these relationships using data from the 1986 to 2008 waves of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). We then exploit variation in laws...

In our model, the government operates a mandatory proportional (contributive) pension system to substitute for the low life-cycle savings of the low-paid myopes. The socially optimal contribution rate is high (equalizing young- and old-age consumption for them), while an appropriate cap on...

This paper analyzes the interconnections of underreported earnings, savings and oldage pension with the help of a most simple, elementary model. The workers can be divided into three groups: 1) well-paid who report their full earnings, 2) well-paid who report only the minimum earnings (evaders)...

To defend myopic workers against themselves, the government introduces a mandatory system but to help savers, it adds tax-favored retirement accounts. In a very simple model, where benefits are proportional to contributions, we compare three extreme systems: (i) the pure mandatory system, (ii)...

Pension systems fight myopia and reduce old-age poverty. Our simple model introduces heterogeneous wages, flexible labor supply, progressive personal income tax and pension credit. The socially optimal transfer system is close to the means-tested one proposed by Feldstein (1987). -- myopia ;...

Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension systems have recently become popular because they provide the strong incentives of the private funded systems without requiring a difficult transition period. Using the framework of mechanism design, these systems have theoretically been criticized...