Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has reversed. The level of informational inefficiency was pervasive during 1990-2009, although it shows signs of improvement after 2010

MoreLess

Year of publication:	[2021]
Authors:	Lahiri, Kajal ; Zhang, Junyan ; Zhao, Yongchen
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung \| Public pension system \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Theorie \| Theory \| Pensionskasse \| Pension fund \| Prognose \| Forecast \| Effizienz \| Efficiency \| Rentenfinanzierung \| Pension finance \| Soziale Sicherheit \| Social security \| Overlapping Generations \| Overlapping generations

freely available

Full text |

More access options

doi.org

Check Google Scholar

In German libraries (KVK)

I need help

Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (12 p)
Series:	CESifo Working Paper ; No. 9415
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments 2021 erstellt
Other identifiers:	10.2139/ssrn.3969571 [DOI]
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E66 - General Outlook and Conditions ; H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions ; H68 - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449