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Cerovic, Svetlana - 2018

-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912485

Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability

Deghi, Andrea - 2020

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831613

News-Based Sentiment Indicators

Huang, Chengyu - 2020

We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like 'fear', 'risk', 'hedging', 'opinion', and, 'crisis', as well as 'positive' and 'negative' sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843513

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

Bluedorn, John C. - 2019

We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Timmermann, Allan - 2006

raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780429

Predictive Density Aggregation : A Model for Global GDP Growth

Caselli, Francesca - 2020

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829696

Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting : High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities

Ando, Sakai; Kim, Taehoon - 2022

Forecasting a macroframework, which consists of many macroeconomic variables and accounting identities, is widely … conducted in the policy arena to present an economic narrative and check its consistency. Such forecasting, however, is …. This paper proposes a method to systematically forecast macroframework by integrating (1) conditional forecasting with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082216

A Pandemic Forecasting Framework : An Application of Risk Analysis

Dizioli, Allan; Radzikowski, Aneta; Greenwood, Daniel - 2022

This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013305549

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

Weisfeld, Hans; de Carvalho Filho, Irineu; Comelli, Fabio; … - 2021

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250073

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

An, Zidong - 2019

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864122