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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010604844
This is a preliminary draft of an Invited Symposium paper for the World Congress of the Econometric Society to be held in Seattle in August 2000. We discuss the strong connections between auction theory and standard economic theory, and argue that auction-theoretic tools and intuitions can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605125
The internal models amendment to the Basel Accord allows banks to use internal models to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds, which are used to calculate the required capital that banks must hold in reserve as a protection against negative changes in the value of their trading portfolios. As...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731585
part focus on the development of models and methods for forecasting. The key question was whether one believes that the … forecasting discipline has made progress in the last three decades. Amongst various results, the most important one is that modest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731593
This article proposes a modified method for the construction of diffusion indexes in macroeconomic forecasting using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731613
Many companies collect stated preference data (SP) like intentions and satisfaction as well as revealed preference data (RP) like actual purchasing behavior. It seems relevant to examine the predictive usefulness of this information for future revealed preferences, that is, customer behavior. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731640
we examine the forecasting performance of various models for seasonality and nonlinearity using quarterly industrial … production series for 17 OECD countries. We find that forecasting performance varies widely across series, across forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731660
In this paper obsolescence of service parts is analyzed in a practical environment. Based on the analysis, we propose a method that can be used to estimate the risk of obsolescence of service parts. The method distinguishes groups of service parts. For these groups, the risk of obsolescence is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731664
over-forecasting and the associated ample labor supply for the warehouse. As compared to under-forecasted days, labor … estimated from daily data on bias and labor efficiency. The positive effects of intentional over-forecasting on productivity are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731669
In business and in macroeconomics it is common practice to use econo- metric models to generate forecasts. These models can take any degree of sophistication. Sometimes it is felt by an expert that the model-based fore- cast needs adjustment. This paper makes a plea for a formal approach to such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731718