This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and...

This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and...

Most parts of the Euro area have seen seven years of deep economic crisis. The strategy of tightening the fiscal constraints of the SGP has driven many member states into austerity. In contrast, the golden rule of public investment proposed in this study would be one important element of the...

It is largely recognised that fiscal policy will have larger responsibilities for cyclical stabilisation in EMU given the loss of the monetary instrument. At the same time, the EMU's budgetary framework emphasises the need to rely on automatic fiscal stabilisers, rather than active policies in...

The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government - which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s....

It is widely recognised that fiscal policy will have greater responsibilities for cyclical stabilisation in the EMU, given the loss of the monetary instrument at national level. At the same time, the EMU's budgetary framework emphasises the need to rely on automatic fiscal stabilisers, rather...