Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Neben der Einleitung ist die Dissertation in zwei Teile aufgeteilt. In Teil I wird die Annahme eines Investors mit μ-σ Präferenz getroffen. Das erste Kapitel stellt ein Multi-Rating ATSM unter Arbitragefreiheit mit dem klaren Fokus auf Zinsstrukturkurvenmodelle für Unternehmensanleihen vor....

ARMA-GARCH-Modellierung; nicht-Normalität; normal-inverse Gauss-Verteilung (NIG-Verteilung); realisierte Momente; Staatsanleihen; Strom Forwards; stylized facts von Finanzzeitreihen; Value at Risk; Verteilung von Anleiherenditen

Using a unique data set that contains the complete ownership structure of the German stock market, we study the momentum and contrarian trading of different investor groups. Foreign investors and financial institutions, and especially mutual funds, are momentum traders, whereas private...

Bond excess returns can be predicted by macro factors, however, large parts remain still unexplained. We apply a novel term structure model to decompose bond excess returns into expected excess returns (risk premia) and the unexpected part. In order to explore these risk premia and innovations,...