Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper we provide new empirical evidence on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR...

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different...

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different...

In this paper the exchange rate forecasting performance of neural network models are evaluated against random walk and a range of time series models. There are no guidelines available that can be used to choose the parameters of neural network models and therefore the parameters are chosen...

This paper compares the UK/US exchange rate forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models based on monetary fundamentals, to a random walk (RW) model. Structural breaks are identified and taken into account. The exchange rate forecasting framework is also used for assessing the relative...

The performance of a "capital certain" Divisia index constructed using the same components included in the Bank of England"s MSI plus national savings; a "risky" Divisia index constructed by adding bonds, shares and unit trusts to the list of assets included in the first index; and a capital...

This paper investigates whether investors are compensated for taking on commonality risk in equity portfolios. A large literature documents the existence and the causes of commonality in illiquidity, but the implications for investors are less well understood. In a more than fifty year long...

This paper investigates whether investors are compensated for taking on commonality risk in equity portfolios. A large literature documents the existence and the causes of commonality in illiquidity, but the implications for investors are less understood. We find a return premium for commonality...

Prompted by a real-life observation in the UK retail market, a two-player Prisoners' Dilemma model of an alliance between two firms is adapted to include the response of a rival firm, resulting in a version of a three-player Prisoners' Dilemma. We use this to analyse the impact on the stability...