The aim of this paper is to assess the dimension of factors and shocks that drive financial conditions, and in particular financial stress in the euro area. A second aim is to construct summary indices on the conditions and level of stress in financial markets with the aid of a dynamic factor...

The path of output prior to the financial and economic crisis turned out to be not sustainable and lower than previously estimated in some European crisis countries. Specifically, the output gaps have been underestimated (and inversely potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It...

The financial and economic crisis has drawn attention to the need for a better understanding of destabilising effects that arise in the financial sector and spill over to the real economy. In turn, weakening economic conditions are likely to feed back to the financial sector, thus giving rise to...

Die neue Bundesregierung steht in der kommenden Legislaturperiode vor großen wirtschaftspolitischen Herausforderungen. Zwar war die deutsche Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den letzten Jahren überraschend positiv. Hervorzuheben sind vor allem die starke Zunahme der Beschäftigung und die schnelle...

This paper analyses Greek fiscal sustainability from a retrospective and a prospective view. Implications of Greek fiscal (un)sustainability are discussed. In the empirical analysis econometric testing of Greek government solvency during the period 1985-2008 is combined with a scenario analysis...

The aim of this paper is to take a structured approach at estimating the coefficients of factors explaining movements of the labour share across countries. In particular, we focus on proper dynamic specification and test the validity of the homogeneity assumption of slope coefficients frequently...

In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons...

Die vorliegende Arbeit diskutiert Ursachen für Unsicherheiten von Konjunkturprognosen und demonstriert die Berechnung von empirischen Prognoseintervallen. Die Verwendung empirischer Prognoseintervalle für eine Beurteilung der Signifikanz von Prognoserevisionen wird für den Median der...

Hours worked is a time series of interest in many empirical investigations of the macroeconomy. Estimates of macro elasticities of labour supply, for example, build on this variable. Other empirical applications investigate the response of hours worked to a shock to technology on the basis of...

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth...