In analysing the effects of economic policy in a Federal system, such as Australia, it is important to understand the interactions between the States and Territories. In particular, given that there is free movement between labour markets, to analyse economic policy it is important to understand...

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions without reducing economic growth requires advances in technology (which reduce the emissions intensity of industrial production) and/or policy measures to promote structural change (which shift the composition of production in favour of less polluting...

In his recent book "Dog Days", Garnaut (2013) argues that the Australian economy faces significant economic challenges, with a risk that just as the investment phase of the mining boom ends, Australia will be entering an economic environment characterised by declining terms of trade, a rising...

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...

Age-sex-specific population forecasts are derived through stochastic population renewal using forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients are used to model age-specific mortality and fertility rates. As detailed migration data are...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of a range of alternative single-factor continuous time models for the Australian short-term interest rate. The models are indexed by the level effect parameter for the volatility in the short rate process. The inferential approach adopted is Bayesian,...

Several studies advocating safety first as a major concern to investors propose downside beta risk as an alternative to the traditional systematic risk-beta. Downside measures are concerned with a subset of the data and therefore the results in the studies that consider the downside beta only...

Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An...

A Bayesian approach to option pricing is presented, in which posterior inference about the underlying returns process is conducted implicitly via observed option prices. A range of models allowing for conditional leptokurtosis, skewness and time-varying volatility in returns are considered, with...