This paper investigates the presence of bull and bear market states in stock price dynamics. A new definition of bull and bear market states based on sequences of stopping times tracing local peaks and troughs in stock prices is proposed. Duration dependence in stock prices is investigated...

This paper investigates the process determining mutual funds' conditional probability of closure, i.e. their hazard function. Using a nonparametric approach to estimate the effects of a fund's age on its hazard rate, we find a distinctly nonlinear, inverse U-shaped pattern in the relationship....

This paper investigates the process determining mutual funds conditional probability of closure, i.e. their hazard function. Using a nonparmetric approach to estimate the effects of a funds age on its hazard rate, we find a distinctly nonlinear, inverse U-shaped pattern in the relationship....

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of...

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a...

This paper applies the model confidence sets (MCS) procedure to a set of volatility models. A MSC is analogous to a confidence interval of parameter in the sense that the former contains the best forecasting model with a certain probability. The key to the MCS is that it acknowledges the...

This paper studies tests of calendar effects in equity returns. It is necessary to control for all possible calendar effects to avoid spurious results. The authors contribute to the calendar effects literature and its significance with a test for calendar-specific anomalies that conditions on...

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of forecasting models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the "best" forecasting model, given a level of confidence. Thus, an MCS is analogous to a confidence interval for a...

When evaluating the significance of calendar effects, such as those associated with Monday and January, it is necessary to control for all possible calendar effects to avoid spurious results. The downside of having to control for a large number of possible calendar effects is that it diminish...

When alternatives are compared using an estimated criterion function, this may introduce a discrepancy between the true and the estimated criterion. In this paper, we consider a situation where a preordering (ranking) of stochastic sequences is defined from expected loss/gain, using a parametric...