Buy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models are built for companies operating in a non- contractual setting to predict customers’ transaction frequency, amount and timing as well as customer lifetime. These models tend to perform well, although they often predict unrealistically long lifetimes for a...

This research provides a new way to validate and compare buy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models. These models specify a customer’s transaction and defection processes in a non-contractual setting. They are typically used to identify active customers in a com- pany’s customer base and to predict...

The Pareto/NBD model is one of the best-known models in customer base analysis. Extant literature has brought up three different Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures for parameter estimation of this model. Nevertheless, three main research gaps remain. Firstly, the issue of hyper parameter...

As the 2000 election so vividly showed, it is Electoral College standings rather than national popular votes that determine who becomes President. But current pre-election polls focus almost exclusively on the popular vote. Here we present a method by which pollsters can achieve both point...

We explore the implications for asset prices and implied volatilities in an equilibrium model of commodity production. Production of the commodity can be carried out in one of two regimes. In the first regime the reserves are set in constant decline while in the second regime new additions to...

This paper studies the implications for reserve lifetime and related quantities in a continuous time model of resource extraction under uncertainty. Both the resource price and the extracted amount are assumed to follow stochastic processes. Reserve lifetime is determined by the...

For developing economies the development of enterprises should be a strategic goal, this way of thinking may become viable only as a result of a combination of judicious analysis based on specific local economic aspects and a set of actions to correct any slippage or amplify existing development...

Successful product line design and development often requires balancing technical and market trade-offs. Quantitative methods for optimizing product attribute levels using preference elicitation (e.g., conjoint) data are useful for many product types. However, products with substantial...

We use a multivariate hazard model for the analysis of data on the timing of ratifications of different conventions. The model accounts for two random effects, one at the country level and the other at the convention level. We use a semi-parametric Bayesian approach, based on the partial...

Change point models using hierarchical priors share in the information of each regime when estimating the parameter values of a regime. Because of this sharing, hierarchical priors have been very successful when estimating the parameter values of short-lived regimes and predicting the...