This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non … the current change in expenditure to forecast the current imports. Using U.S. data on aggregate expenditure and good …

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …

, particularly affected by foreign trade. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2019 and 3 … situation in Italy are causing uncertainty. Against this backdrop, monetary policy is likely to be expansionary in the forecast …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

the world urgently need to see the big picture if they are to deal with the specific challenges and opportunities they …

the world urgently need to see the big picture if they are to deal with the specific challenges and opportunities they …