The corona virus pandemic has dramatically changed the economic outlook for the United States and many other countries. In June this year, the Federal Reserve published its unemployment predictions. From a July 2020 level of 10.2%, it expects the year-end ratio to drop to 9.3%; by the end of...

The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of gold prices in Pakistan and to deduce long run co-integration between them, if any. The impact of global gold prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, silver prices and stock market performance have been measured on the gold prices...

Several studies attributed the rise of household bankruptcy in the past two decades to the decline of social stigma associated with default. Stigma explanations, however, cannot account for the increase of credit availability during this period. I try to explain both of these facts as a result...

There is widespread disagreement about the role of housing wealth in explaining consumption. Much of the empirical literature is marred by poor controls for the common drivers both of house prices and consumption, including income, income growth expectations, interest rates, credit supply...

This paper develops a macroeconomic model of the interaction between consumer debt and firm debt over the business cycle. I incorporate interest rate spreads generated by firm and household loan default risk into a real business cycle model. I estimate the model on US aggregate data. This allows...

In a context in which individuals might default on their debts and subsequently be excluded from credit markets, holding money helps agents smooth their consumption during periods in which they cannot borrow. Therefore holding money makes the punishment to default less severe. In this context,...

Homotheticity induces a dramatic statistical bias in the estimates of the intratemporal and intertemporal substitutions. I find potent support in favor of nonhomotheticity in aggregate consumption data, with nondurable goods being necessities and durable goods luxuries. I obtain the...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) provided support to the MOF to formulate a user-friendly and easily transferable computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to reflect the effect of changes in various public policies and forecast changes of fiscal policy on different sectors of the economy....