The electoral regression discontinuity (RD) design is popular because it provides an unbiased, design-based estimate of the incumbency advantage with few assumptions. However, as is well known, the RD estimate is "local": it only identifies the effect in hypothetical districts with an exactly...

"We employ a regression discontinuity design based on close elections to estimate the rents from a seat in the U.S. congress between 1850-1880. Using census data, we compare wealth accumulation among those who won or lost their first race by a small margin. We find evidence of significant...